Predictions for the next decade-ish

This post discusses four trends that I think will help define the next decade in business, technology, and societal shake-ups. I'm by no means an expert in any of these areas, in fact, I know so little about these areas that I think I'm qualified enough to write about them. So, you've been warned - this predictions write-up is less informed and higher level than most, but a fun thought exercise to force reflection on recent events, what dynamics are at play, and how they'll influence the future.

Privacy

Much of the world came online in the earlier parts of the last decade. The few years that followed had little regulation, lots of questions, even more potential. As a society, we were still figuring out what the internet was. Towards the end of the decade, we learned not only what the internet was, but the massive scale it allowed, the access to knowledge it unlocked, and the incredible potential that lay ahead because of it.

Intentionally or not, we (users) also subjected ourselves to privacy concerns, data collection, and personal data security risks that didn’t exist in decades prior. As more people spend more time on more devices, the importance we collectively weigh on our personal data being tracked, used, and in some cases exploited, will increase dramatically.

The next decade will be focused on cleaning up the mess now that a foundation for a connected society has been built. The consumer product of the 2020s will protect user privacy, increase transparency, and perhaps most importantly give users access to their own data. I don’t know if this product will come from an existing company, like Apple, or a new one. Apple, in its savviness, seems to be already moving this way, or at least their marketing is. Wherever it originates, it will define a new consumer product category.

Genetic Engineering, Private Enterprise, and Public Institutions

Genetic engineering will not become accessible for most, but the conversation and policies surrounding it will candidly begin in the near future. It's a major event in the history of our species and I'd wager we will all be there to witness it. The exponential growth and proliferation of technology in the medical space will continue and will lead to breakthroughs in genetic engineering. There will continue to be lots of open questions, but I see this is as unavoidable - rapid technology advancements, tech adoption in the medical field, and the growth of new technology solving medical problems will lead us to extraordinary medical progress in the next ten years.

Similarly, private enterprises will continue to exert influence in areas previously dominated by governments, as policy makers realize the benefits of competition in a ruthless free market that advances now at the speed of technology improvements (i.e. fast). SpaceX is a good example - this will become more common as the government continues to lag in progress compared to private companies that are able to retain top talent, pivot quickly, and secure funding that can avoid the red tape of governmental budgetary decisions.

Increasing globalization and digitization will create a new need for infrastructure, and as folks continue to lose trust in government, this infrastructure seems more and more likely to be powered by the blockchain. I'll leave it at that - this is an area so over my head I'm not sure where it will come from, how it will advance, or honestly how it really works under the hood. But I think we are in the beginning phase of something big to come from this space.

Silicon Valley

With unsustainably increasing cost of living, growing tech hubs elsewhere, and COVID forcing the hand of employers to transition to remote-first options, the dominance of Silicon Valley will be partially muted. Note I say partially - Silicon Valley ain’t going nowhere. But places like Austin, Denver, Boston, Salt Lake, and others will see a massive influx of tech talent, and from there, tech firms and investors will follow.  Once investors appear, it will become less necessary to be in Silicon Valley with a startup idea to hit that big round of funding and the credibility that comes with it. And once this becomes less necessary, the virtuous cycle will build on itself until the tech scene is decentralized, or at least partially so.

Gentlemen, there’s only two ways I know of to make money: bundling and unbundling.

Unbundling with Old Friends

The only thing guaranteed in life is death and taxes. The only things guaranteed in business are bundling and unbundling.

More specifically, Jim Barksdale said “Gentlemen, there’s only two ways I know of to make money: bundling and unbundling.”

One could make the case that Amazon’s retail business will be unbundled as other retailers catch up to its e-commerce dominance and minimize differences for the consumer. I already find myself ordering things directly from other retailer websites as the online buying experience improves. This is in stark contrast to say, a few years ago, when any online purchases of mine went through Amazon.

One play I’m particularly excited to watch is how Walmart unlocks growth in this area. Amazon has been the favorite child of investors for years, and its growth is staggering. Walmart, on the other hand, is getting its lunch stolen as Amazon’s retail adversary.

I see Walmart as a sleeping giant. It accounts for 10% of US consumer retail spending, has strategically located retail hubs across the nation, a world class supply chain, and scale that is frankly incalculable. When Walmart unlocks its next phase of growth, it will be scary. Especially considering the keen eye they have on leveraging their scale for delivery, digital, and grocery.

The other important thing to note here is if we are being honest with ourselves, Walmart's current customer experience is...pretty bad. Now, I won't sit here and tell anyone I'm better than shopping at Walmart, 'cause I'm not, but it's never something that's particularly enjoyable. There is a lot of improvement to be had in the experience of shopping at Walmart - with a huge payoff waiting at the other end.

They have the retail hubs, the supply chain, real estate, and capital to absolutely change the competitive landscape for consumer commerce, especially for grocery, and especially for rural areas. I'm betting Walmart has its second coming-of-age story this decade, and it will be something to behold.